Title: Soybean Market Update
The soybean market has shown several notable trends recently. In China, the domestic soybean market has generally remained stable this year, with average prices varying in different regions. For example, in Heilongjiang, the price is between 1.85 yuan and 2.00 yuan per jin, while in Henan, it is 2.05 yuan – 2.10 yuan per jin, and in Anhui, it is 2.05 yuan – 2.15 yuan per jin, and in Hubei, it is 2.45 yuan – 2.50 yuan per jin.
According to the report by the Grain and Oil Market News on December 3rd, after experiencing a rise from late October to early November, the soybean market in both the northern and southern producing areas of China remained stable until the end of November. Currently, the soybean sources held by the terminal market have decreased by nearly 30% compared to the same period in previous years. It is expected that starting from mid-December, agricultural product wholesale markets across the country will enter a new restocking cycle, which will last for about a month before the Spring Festival, and the price of domestic soybeans is likely to rise rather than fall.
In the Northeast soybean producing area, a strong snowfall in late November increased the difficulty of land transportation, briefly hindering the purchase and circulation of soybeans. The state reserve has been purchasing new soybeans and auctioning old soybeans simultaneously. The warehousing price of third-class national standard soybeans is 3,700 yuan per ton, and the auction reserve price of old soybeans is 3,600 yuan per ton. The influx of old soybeans into the market has significantly inhibited the conversion of an equal amount of new grains and restricted the price fluctuation of such soybean sources.
In the Guannei producing area, the soybean market bottomed out and rebounded in late October. The terminal market actively participated at that time, accelerating the circulation for a while. However, during the sharp decline in the purchase volume of the producing areas, the phenomenon of “reverse purchase” across regions emerged, and the market in low-price areas was quickly corrected. Currently, the price difference of similar soybean sources between regions has narrowed.
In the international market, on December 2nd, the spot price of US soybeans decreased due to the strengthening of the US dollar exchange rate. Analysts are optimistic about the production prospects of South American soybeans. The consulting company Celeres predicted that Brazil’s soybean production in 2024/25 will reach a record 170.8 million tons, an increase of nearly 1 million tons compared to the previous prediction and 10.55% higher than the previous year. Such a large output will continue to put pressure on global prices and increase freight costs during Brazil’s soybean export peak.
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Post time: Dec-03-2024